Chile Prepares for Decisive Presidential Runoff Marking Potential Shift to the Right

Chile is holding a crucial presidential runoff election on Sunday, anticipated to produce the most significant rightward political shift since the end of the dictatorship in 1990. Approximately 15.6 million registered voters will cast their ballots, with voting scheduled to conclude at 6 p.m. local time (2100 GMT) and initial results expected shortly thereafter.

The contest is between Jose Antonio Kast, founder of the far-right Republican Party, and Jeannette Jara, the coalition candidate from the leftist Communist Party currently aligned with the incumbent government. In November's first round, Jara led with 26.85% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Kast's 23.92%. Analysts predict that supporters of other right-wing candidates will largely back Kast, likely securing his victory with over 50% of the vote.

The final stages of campaigning centered heavily on public security, the issue dominating voter concerns. Speaking from Temuco, a region troubled by tensions between Indigenous Mapuche groups and the state, Kast promised to restore order, condemning the current government as responsible for chaos and insecurity. "This government caused chaos, this government caused disorder, this government caused insecurity," the 59-year-old lawyer stated. "We're going to do the opposite. We're going to create order, security and trust."

Voters expressed apprehension about crime, with many drawing comparisons to deteriorating security situations in neighboring countries. Aldo Zambrano, a Venezuelan-born teacher residing in Chile, voiced fears of a similar spike in violence as seen in Ecuador. Meanwhile, others highlighted the deep political polarization, hoping for continued emphasis on social benefits and education.

Chile remains one of Latin America’s safer nations, but a recent rise in organized crime and increased immigration has unsettled the electorate. These issues have posed challenges for President Gabriel Boric, who, despite barring from immediate reelection, expanded police resources and deployed the military to northern borders in an effort to combat crime. Nevertheless, Boric's approval ratings remain low, while Kast’s tough-on-crime stance has resonated with many voters.

Kast’s projected win is welcomed by investors banking on a market-friendly administration that would expedite economic reforms, including deregulation and pension system overhauls. Following the first-round results, the Chilean peso strengthened and equity markets surged. While the legislature remains divided, Kast could leverage his victory to advance economic restructuring.

"The third time’s a charm," Kast remarked after securing his place in the runoff, noting his previous presidential bids. Though some of his views were once considered extreme, growing voter desire for security has softened resistance to his platform. Political analyst Marta Lagos described Kast’s rise as an "escape valve for the rejection of politics in Chile."

This runoff is also notable as Chile’s first election under mandatory voting laws with automatic registration and penalties for abstention. Approximately 20% of voters remain undecided or intend to cast blank ballots, adding unpredictability to the outcome. University of Valparaiso analyst Guillermo Holzmann pointed out the key question of how these non-committal votes will affect the final result.

In her last major campaign event in Coquimbo, Jara emphasized the need for firm crime policies alongside robust social programs and urged citizens not to abstain. "Talk to people who are thinking about voting blank. There’s a lot at stake and we have to move forward, not back," the 51-year-old lawyer and former labor minister said.

The election’s outcome will shape the country’s political and economic direction amid a complex landscape of security concerns and social demands.